The Luck Paradox

 The Luck Paradox

Many of us don't like to be told that our success is a result of luck. And many don't say it for fear of offending anyone. This is why it was such a relief to hear Tony Elumelu of the UBA fame and Chairman of Heirs Holdings talk about how lucky he was. Don't get me wrong, hardwork, talent and other positives definitely contribute towards success. 

But certain successes are outlier successes. According to a 2022 Credit Suisse report, just 1.2% of the global population control the wealth of 48% of global households, which comes to about $227trillion. Now that is some outlier success. It is not success you come by in a linear fashion or through equal chance. This point is best illustrated thus. 

At the time when Tony Elumelu started Standard Trust Bank, the entry into banking was relatively lower and ageism was not an issue. The founders of GTBank started so young, same with Access Bank. In Nigeria of today, you can only start a Fintech at that age. Luck of the times? 

Many great founders, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, founders of Google, Bill Gates did not come from the bottom. They had parents and family that provided some leverage. At least, these people were born in homes where they were exposed to computers and had basic comfort. Bezos got about $100,000 from his father, Bill got some strings from his family to pull off the deal with IBM for their line of personal computers and the rest is history. You will ask, how is all this luck? Well, do you get to determine the family you are born into? Well, that's why it is about luck. 

In 1968, Bill Gates was 13years old. He was in a high school called Lakeside school in Seattle. In 1968, there were about 303 million children in high school globally. But Bill Gates and other 302 kids at Lakeside were lucky to have a computer to work with. This computer was procured because a Science and Math teacher in that school named Bill Dougall made the case that book study was not enough, that the kids have to do practical work. This is how Bill Gates started. And Gates said it clearly that there will be no Microsoft, without Lakeside. But the average person would have thought that there was no influence or trigger to Bill Gates establishing Microsoft. There you have it.

Just imagine that in 1968 that Bill Gates and his schoolmates had a 1 in 3,000,000 chance to be among high school kids that will have realtime access to a computer, in a period, where majority of college and graduate students didn't have such access. 

Another story is that of Peter Drucker who is considered as a father of the management discipline. Personally, I wondered how a journalist will end up being such a force in management. Well, it was discovered down the line that his parents were friends with Joseph Schumpeter who dined regularly at their house. Schumpeter coined "Creative Destruction". A popular expression which is used to explain disruptive innovation. 

Steve Jobs had Wozniack (Apple) and for some reason you can't separate Peter Theil, Elon Musk and Max Levchin (X.com and PayPal) 

Dangote's grandfather was one of the richest men in Africa and the richest in Nigeria at a time. Otedola's father, a former governor of Lagos was also a billionaire. Rasaq Okoya's father was the tailor to Sir Odumegwu Ojukwu, who was the richest man in Nigeria at a time. 

If your parents are University professors like some of my friends, it rubs off on you. If you are from the slums, your chances of speaking good English is reduced, almost by half. 

Ladies and Gentlemen, we are all playing a lottery here. We have to admit it. Merit is critical, but it is not the entire story. Everywhere in the world, you have to work harder than someone whose parent or sponsor is powerful. 

The question now is how do we get lucky? Even if we don't have a privileged background or circumstances? I think the answer is in two-folds. First, we can see from the points made so far that luck can come from a couple of things: Family background and social relationships. Thus, what sort of people do you have in your circles, and who do you invite to your family table for lunch or dinner?

The second point is based on the world of Nassem Taleb in his book- Black Swan. His advice is that more luck is gained in trying more new things (opportunities) than the average. He also suggests that you try your hands on bigger opportunities, from where rare events will arise. 

Finally, some people say much of life is showing up. That admonition has been taken in a very trite manner. The statistical message is not obvious. Showing up is a game of numbers. It is statistics. If there is a 1 in 1 million chance of getting lucky, showing up, trying new things, being around the best brains, discussing new opportunities will most likely afford you your own luck. 

Have a great week. 

Babatope.