Posts

The Luck Paradox

 The Luck Paradox Many of us don't like to be told that our success is a result of luck. And many don't say it for fear of offending anyone. This is why it was such a relief to hear Tony Elumelu of the UBA fame and Chairman of Heirs Holdings talk about how lucky he was. Don't get me wrong, hardwork, talent and other positives definitely contribute towards success.  But certain successes are outlier successes. According to a 2022 Credit Suisse report, just 1.2% of the global population control the wealth of 48% of global households, which comes to about $227trillion. Now that is some outlier success. It is not success you come by in a linear fashion or through equal chance. This point is best illustrated thus.  At the time when Tony Elumelu started Standard Trust Bank, the entry into banking was relatively lower and ageism was not an issue. The founders of GTBank started so young, same with Access Bank. In Nigeria of today, you can only start a Fintech at that age. Luck of...

Monetary Policy in Nigeria: Lesson's from India's Demonetization and Cashless Policy

 In November 2016, the Indian government carried out a  demonetization policy which saw the banning if 500 and 1,000 rupee notes. The goals of this policy was to: curb black markets and set India on the path of being a cashless economy.   The immediate results were encouraging, as digital payments increased between November 2016 and December 2016. However, this success was shortlived as digital payments dropped by 20% in February 2017. And a report by the Reserve Bank of India indicated that 99.3% of demonetized notes have returned to circulation in the India Economy. The factors that led to this are largely cultural/behavioural and  infrastructural. The factors are also present in Nigeria, where we are attempting the same policy.  Literacy levels, established payment behaviours and informal nature of the greater part of our economy will dictate that cash is king and will remain king.  The incessant failure of digital payment channels will prove that w...

The West and China: Threat of Fascism and The New Cold War

Inequality and widespread poverty will always be a solid basis for fascism. This is the reason why the likes of Donald Trump are influential in global politics today.  For many years, globalists, capitalists and western politicians looked the other way, while the world financialized, jobs off-shored and opportunity was limited for low-skilled workers. Their entire way of life, industry and personality was threatened. Yet, these working people paid taxes and were ignored by establishment politicians. This is the wave that the likes of Donald Trump and Boris Johnson rode to power. Same thing is happening in Italy where Giorgia Meloni, a far right politician recently became Prime Minister.  Meanwhile, in China, Xi Jinping has just secured an unprecedented third term as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. His leadership is based on an ideology of party control of China. This means weaning China off the freedoms and uncontrolled individual freedoms that Chinese billio...

Thoughts on Economic Impact of Flooding in Nigeria.

 Nigeria was supposed to complete a Dam called Dasen Hausa Dam in Adamawa in 1982, but we didn't till date. And that is why Nigeria gets flooded when Cameroon releases water from it's Lagdo Dam.  Today, about 27-33 states are experiencing flooding issues because of failure of governments environmental policy and general incompetence in the area of environment. Even when a leading presidential aspirant says that he will ask the Western world to keep "their climate change" to themselves. He doesn't  realize that climate change is more of our problem, just like it's that of the West.  Food inflation will be high next year and will easily take headline inflation to the region of 30-35% before end of 2023. So Nigerians, brace up. And don't forget that it is an election year, so money supply will go up, so the inflation projection  can easily rise to 37%. A double digit increase in headline inflation will mean an increase in interest rates further slowing down e...

Social Connectedness, Being a Billionaire, Artificial Intelligence and other Tools for Human Productivity

 Being a billionaire will take the simplest, yet hardest things. For instance, the greatest factor responsible for making people billionaires is "association". The people around you. That sounds very simple, and so motigbesional. But try it and see whether it really yields much.  The truth is that having the right company is more often a matter of luck. The schools you attend, your church, your natural social circles and nature of work can determine the sort of people that are around you. And then, that is no guarantee. The so called quality people may not like you. They may not trust you and they may just be too selfish. Not even in a culture like ours where almost everyone is trying to corner everything because they want to cure the generational poverty in their family. The rich ones are also scared. Its a crazy really.  The fact remains that the world we live in demands innovation for wealth creation. And it is people who bring all the pieces together to make these so...

US, China and Africa in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

In China, a KFC outlet first allowed payments using facial recognition in 2017. This was powered by Ant Financial. Meanwhile, at Baidu headquarters all you need to do is smile to order food.  All of these is powered by artificial intelligence using facial recognition. The technologies available can profile your demographics, that is age, and other details using a snapshot, even if you are not on the database of the AI company itself.  These innovations in China is direct result of the digital strategy to be fastest growing AI leader by 2025 and the clear leader by 2025. For the records, China generates more data which is the foundation and fuel of artificial intelligence. And China generates 10 times more data than the US. It has 50 times more payments than US. 10 times more e-commerce food delivery and 300 times more shared bicycle rides than US.  However, the issue with the AI race is not just application or innovation for everyday use as we see with China. It is also a...

Global Responsibility: A Brief Description of a New Paradigm

The entire world is struggling with inflation and other economic woes because some people in Asia have a fancy for wild animals, and coincidentally, when the microorganisms in those animals have been mutated by climate change. Something can start in a small country and put the entire world in trouble. That is how connected we are. The new fact is that we are in the age of global responsibility. Is it possible that absolute sovereignty and national determinism have become obsolete. If a cyber attack on some super servers or digital infrastructure in USA affects Europe and Africa, leading to a loss of 30 billion dollars daily, is US still free to do as it pleases with it's cyber-policy? If China creates malicious AI algorithms that provide inspiration for non-state actors to cause misinformation and disinformation at scale, thereby providing tools for terrorists in Africa, especially Islamic State in West Africa (ISWAP) and Islamic State in Central Africa (ISCAP), does it still ha...